Monday, June 9, 2008

New Math

This weekend I had a college reunion. I learned many things (many of which are a little too obscene to repeat), and had several very interesting conversations.

A common topic these days is the price of fuel. One of the observations I tried to get across is that this isn't likely price gouging and it isn't likely to get any better.
I'm not the only one who thinks so. I would add that the dollar/euro currency situation is also a major driver since fuel is priced in dollars (at least for now and that is another topic), as well as the credit crisis which is one of the main root causes of the dollar implosion (also another topic). Get ready for a brave new world in the very near future where fuel costs $6-$7 per gallon. It isn't going to matter who gets elected this November: there is absolutely nothing which is going to stop or derail this. One thing for sure, it won't be the end of the automakers; they have an entire installed base of gas-guzzlers that people will be desperate to replace....

But the price of fuel is not what concerns me; what worries me is global climate change. Unfortunately, the "global prosperity" that most moral people of the West have longed for is actually happening, and god help us all. The developing industrial and commercial markets in Inda and China alone and the increased energy consumed by the approximately 2.5 billion people living in those countries will dwarf the efforts of the much smaller Western world (less than 1 billion) to reduce carbon emissions. Please note that almost all of that energy is fossil fuels.

So, to do the math, say that the United States and Europe cut per capita use of energy by half, assume 0.5 billion people in the US and Europe (over-estimate). We can even use the US per capita number of 2003 of 7844 kilos of oil equivalent (koe), that is almost double Europe so I'm being even more generous. So 0.5 billion people x 7844 equals 3922 billion koe. Cut that by 30% and you have a decrease of 905 billion koe. Since the population isn't expected to grow much between the US and Europe combined over the next couple dozen years, this is a pretty workable number. As of 2003, India and China used an average 825 per capita koe. So assume the approximate current population of 2 billion x 825 koe equals 1650 billion koe. The project population increase is to around 2.5 billion over the next decade or so (an increase of 25%), if they also increase energy use by 7% per year over the next ten years (projected economic growth) you have 1650 billion koe x 1.25 x 1.07^10 which equals 3245 billion koe. That is an increase of 1595 billion koe, a net growth of 29% energy use.

Bottom line, decreasing fossil fuel use in the developed world by 30% nets a total increase of carbon emissions of nearly 30% using current trends in India and China alone, not to mention the rest of the underdeveloped world. But please check my sources and math to see if I missed anything.

I'm not advocating that the world's undeveloped and developing world "take one for the team", but we also can't allow a desire for "equitable distribution" of temporary prosperity to endanger the sustainability of human (and most other) life on the planet. Global climate change can be a human species extinction event and we have to stop fucking around and do everything to prevent it. No matter how painful or "unfair".

So what to do? I'll keep throwing out my ideas, but yours are welcome here as well.

6 comments:

whaleshaman said...

That reminds me...

Too long ago, in another place and time, I read a wonky bit indicating the real reason the US was invading Iraq was to assure oil was pegged to the dollar, and not the Euro, for competitive reasons.

I recall that a light went on, so to speak, when I read that. It made more sense than any other.

Now, my brain has been around long enough that it has learned to play tricks with my memory, but I don't believe I have enough formal learning to have pulled that one out of my bag of tricks all on my own of my own free will! ;-)

But have you ever come across that oil/currency explanation anywhere? Honestly, it made more sense at the time than any other bogus reason being peddled by the robber barons in charge.

BTW, thanks for your posts and comments at Corrente. I really appreciate them and look forward to coming here to read more.

And now back to your climate-change story. Ugh, groan, sob. I'm not real hopeful it's all going to work out, no matter how many times I listen to George, John, Ringo and Paul sing that song.

Peace.

herb the verb said...

Dollars vs. euros.

Given that the consensus that fuel prices will explode over the next years, that that will be paid in dollars, that that will increase demand for dollars, and that the dollar is at the same time dropping like a rock, although I am not an economist, that seems like something we should be worried about. Or not.... because I don't really know anything about this high finance stuff, but I do stay at Holiday Inn Express once in a while.

hipparchia said...

math!

china + india = 2.4 billion people today, [swagging it] 2.6 billion people in 10 years

2.4 x 825 = 1980 billion koe today
2.6 x 1650 = 4290 billion koe 10yrs

for purposes of discussion:
north america = canada + us
europe = european union

na = 0.337 billion people today
eu = 0.491 billion people today

0.337 x 7844 = 2643 billion koe na
0.491 x 3699 = 1816 billion koe eu
total = 4459 billion koe
[30% reduction = 1337 billion koe]
eu+na, in 10yrs = 3121 billion koe

4459 + 1980 = 6439 billion koe today
[na + eu + china + india]
6439 - 4290 = 2149 billion koe will have to be the na+eu usage 10 years from now to keep the total usage by na+eu+china+india the same, which means that north america and the european union would have to collectively cut their usage down to less than one quarter [per capita] of what it is today to offset the projected growth in fossil fuel use in india and china

ouch.

[but you should probably check my math]


sources:
2008 pop estimates for eu, us, canada, china, india from cia world factbook
china, india pop 10 yrs from now guesstimated from 2025 estimates

herb the verb said...

Thanks Hipparchia! I will take that and put it on the front page.

Those "current" estimates for koe are actually from 2003, so for India & China it is EVEN WORSE than your estimate, which is EVEN WORSE than my initial estimate (NA and EU didn't raise as fast as they did over the last 5 years so the reduction isn't as great).

I just threw that together as quickly as I could to get the ball rolling and since I hadn't seen a direct comparison like that.

hipparchia said...

we have to start somewhere! i didn't even know about the existence of those koe numbers until now [and i came over here from your corrente post].

it's an important topic, hugely important. i'm fully with the people who say we can't just categorically deny the rest of the world the same advantages we got. i've got mine, screw you isn't going to cut it. otoh, i'm fully with the global warnming people because if we get it wrong and flood the low-lying areas that we live in now and rearrange the weather patterns and so, we're all screwed.

for alot of reasons it's imperative that we start working now on affordable, clean, portable, renewable energy.

and since one day there won't be any more crude oil, we'll need replacements for it in other processes where we use it too, because we do more with it than just burn it for energy. plastics are the most visible product made of petroleum, but they're not the only thing. the sooner we come up with alternate energy sources, the more time we'll have to come up with alternate sources for plastics, medicines, other petro-stuff.

herb the verb said...

Ok Hipparchia, yer on!

I'll gladly work with you to improve my sources and keep on it and improve the visual. Luckily, nailing down a thumb-sketch projection is easily doable, since we are talking about a decades long process. The first step on a journey of a thousand miles.

This is huge, it's over huge, it's bigger than gianormous. It's bigger than war (although war affects it), it's bigger than health care (although health care affects it), it's bigger than any other thing, or even any group of things which we would all like to see positively changed. It's bigger than flooding low-lying areas, bigger than a few species extinctions, bigger than having to adjust crops, or the spread of new diseases.

Global climate change could quite easily be a mass extinction event like we have seen repeatedly throughout the history of the planet. That is actually a mental visual that I would like to lay out in a post if I become smart (or sober) enough to fabricate.