This weekend I had a college reunion. I learned many things (many of which are a little too obscene to repeat), and had several very interesting conversations.
A common topic these days is the price of fuel. One of the observations I tried to get across is that this isn't likely price gouging and it isn't likely to get any better.
I'm not the only one who thinks so. I would add that the
dollar/euro currency situation is also a major driver since fuel is priced in dollars (at least for now and that is another topic), as well as the
credit crisis which is one of the main root causes of the dollar implosion (also another topic). Get ready for a brave new world in the very near future where fuel costs
$6-$7 per gallon. It isn't going to matter who gets elected this November: there is absolutely nothing which is going to stop or derail this. One thing for sure, it won't be the end of the automakers; they have an entire installed base of gas-guzzlers that people will be desperate to replace....
But the price of fuel is not what concerns me; what worries me is
global climate change. Unfortunately, the "global prosperity" that most moral people of the West have longed for is actually happening, and god help us all. The developing industrial and commercial markets in Inda and China alone and the
increased energy consumed by the approximately
2.5 billion people living in those countries will dwarf the efforts of the much smaller Western world (less than 1 billion) to reduce carbon emissions. Please note that almost all of that energy is fossil fuels.
So, to do the math, say that the United States and Europe cut per capita use of energy by half, assume 0.5 billion people in the US and Europe (over-estimate). We can even use the US per capita number of 2003 of
7844 kilos of oil equivalent (koe), that is almost double Europe so I'm being even more generous. So 0.5 billion people x 7844 equals 3922 billion koe. Cut that by 30% and you have a decrease of 905 billion koe. Since the population isn't expected to grow much between the US and Europe combined over the next couple dozen years, this is a pretty workable number. As of 2003, India and China used an average 825 per capita koe. So assume the approximate current population of 2 billion x 825 koe equals 1650 billion koe. The project population increase is to around 2.5 billion over the next decade or so (an increase of 25%), if they also increase energy use by 7% per year over the next ten years (projected economic growth) you have 1650 billion koe x 1.25 x 1.07^10 which equals 3245 billion koe. That is an increase of 1595 billion koe, a net growth of 29% energy use.
Bottom line, decreasing fossil fuel use in the developed world by 30% nets a total increase of carbon emissions of nearly 30% using current trends in India and China alone, not to mention the rest of the underdeveloped world. But please check my sources and math to see if I missed anything.
I'm not advocating that the world's undeveloped and developing world "take one for the team", but we also can't allow a desire for "equitable distribution" of temporary prosperity to endanger the sustainability of human (and most other) life on the planet. Global climate change can be a human species extinction event and we have to stop fucking around and do everything to prevent it. No matter how painful or "unfair".
So what to do? I'll keep throwing out my ideas, but yours are welcome here as well.